Transcript of short speech on the ST3 tax proposal, spoken
by John Niles to the
Annual General Assembly of the Puget Sound Regional Council , March 31, 2016
Click here for Home Page of Public Interest Transportation Forum (PITF)
On Monday, Sound Transit’s chairman called the $50 billion ST phase 3 plan “one of the most
important decision our generation will be asked to make.” I can’t
resist suggesting some questions we should all be asking:
·
Number one, what would a household pay in Sound Transit taxes each
year? 20 years of these
taxes already show they’ll never go away, so let’s have a realistic and
independent analysis of the tax burden on we who would vote for more. Some say the total ST
overall household tax burden would rise to over $1,000 average per year. For
lower income families, is that fair? Would ST3 taxes adversely affect the
ability to fund public education and other programs? How high does light rail
phase 3 push the total household tax load in this region?
·
Question
two, how many additional door-to-door transit trips will $27 billion more taxes
for ST3 buy? Many of the riders on the ST3 add-ons would be those who now
take one-seat morning buses routes that would end at train stations. What’s the
public cost for each new transit
customer? How would that compare to an expanded and modernized rapid bus
service on expressway managed lanes where
PSRC predicts better flow in 2040? Will those with their bus service shut down
save commuting time by having to stand on the train?
·
Third, what
IS the impact on traffic congestion just from ST3? 525 thousand daily boardings in 2040 from all
three phases of Sound Transit is only 3 percent of the 19 million daily trips
forecast by PSRC in that year, so reducing congestion will be challenging, for
sure. No congestion reduction from trains
has ever been confirmed by the environmental impact statements for every rail
project going back to 1999. Unlike many, I read them! So despite PSRC’s
freeway forecast, ST3 plans and marketing are based on future congestion
getting worse. Chairman Constantine said on Monday all of us should support ST3, because “every person who chooses to ride
the train is one less driver snarling up traffic…” So we need
to ask, just how many cars are forecast to be taken out of traffic by ST3, and
is THAT enough to make commuters less miserable.
·
Next, obviously, how
many folks will actually have shorter commuting times because of ST3, and, how
many minutes on average will be saved? Modern computer models can determine this.
·
Fifth and
finally, beyond the rail in
Seattle already being built, does the technological
revolution offer faster, more flexible, less expensive alternatives for
mobility and congestion reduction? The core ST
rail planning assumptions were made decades ago, no longer comporting with changes
possible from the Internet, smartphones, robotics, and cars people buy today
that drive themselves on freeways. Is doubling fixed rail now the best way for
the region to achieve a lower cost, lower emissions, faster, flexible,
high-tech transportation future?
John Niles email: John@JohnNiles.com